25. 12. 11 경제 부동산 뉴스 & 블로그

 

 

 

25. 12. 11 경제 부동산 뉴스 & 블로그 

 25.12.11 재개발 재건축 부동산 관심기사(빌라전세대출, 주간아파트가격, 응암동101번지공공재개발, 신림5구역)
https://m.blog.naver.com/jyleenew/224106169570

 Fomc 
https://m.blog.naver.com/thebeing/224105924881

[비거주자] 주택 소유자만 거주자이고 배우자는 비거주자더라도 1세대1주택 비과세 가능
https://m.blog.naver.com/khr1265/224105646423

12월 주택시장이 꿈틀대는 이유
https://m.blog.naver.com/rpartners01/224104543731

AI 에이전트와 새로운 롤모델 (feat. 팔란티어, 매트 데이트키)
https://m.blog.naver.com/ywritingcoach/224105626123

 이사가는 세입자의 전세 계약금 꼭 줘야 하나요? (feat. 결국 배려가 중요하다)
https://m.blog.naver.com/insightgogo/224105547279

토허제 아무런 의미 없다
https://m.blog.naver.com/kjm2336/224106323879

인테리어 업체 선정시 핵심적으로 체크해야 할 사항
https://m.blog.naver.com/kjm2336/224106311022

강동구 양재대로 확 바뀐다! 길동·굽은다리·명일역 역세권 개발 시동!
https://m.blog.naver.com/sooheenam/224106000580

서울시, 토지거래허가구역 신규3곳 신규지정,기존 63곳 '재지정'
https://m.blog.naver.com/sooheenam/224105934891

공덕1구역, 새 단장 가속 : 정비구역 및 정비계획 변경 ‘수정가결’
https://m.blog.naver.com/sooheenam/224105981289

범서구역 도시정비형 재개발사업
https://m.blog.naver.com/sooheenam/224106053713

사당·이수역 일대 확 바뀐다! 용적률/높이 규제 대폭 완화!
https://m.blog.naver.com/sooheenam/224105874903

주린이 주식투자 반도체 공부
https://m.blog.naver.com/wiseveronica/224106082387

50년 판자촌 구룡마을, 3,739세대 ‘자연친화 주거단지’로 재탄생한다!
https://m.blog.naver.com/sooheenam/224106032650

내수부진 일자리 증가폭 감소 (건설침체)
https://m.blog.naver.com/kjm2336/224106005134

 美 연준, 금리 인하했는데 왜 '매파적'일까? - FOMC 후 '안도 랠리' 이면 분석
https://m.blog.naver.com/wangship/224105999038

블랙스완급 이슈가 있지 않는 한,
https://m.blog.naver.com/psung6/224105934643

요즘 결혼식 축의금 얼마가 적당할까? 최신 데이터 보니 충격!
https://m.blog.naver.com/ne2ne2/224105855056

대한민국 1인 가구 현황 : 800만 가구시대 앞으로 부동산 시장의 변화는?
https://m.blog.naver.com/dreamvision74/224105822979

미국 연준 금리 인하 2026년 금리의 향방은???
https://m.blog.naver.com/ondal0404/224105820469

건대입구역지구가 확 바뀐다! (청년특화거리 & 개발 가속화 소식!)
https://m.blog.naver.com/sooheenam/224105809536

강남구 청담동 52번지 일대 역세권 활성화사업
https://m.blog.naver.com/sooheenam/224105798866

 "티끌모아 태산" 가성비 소비와 개인화되어 가는 소비시장 - 부동산R114
https://m.blog.naver.com/r114korea/224105598737

용두동 39-361번지 일대 주택정비형 재개발사업
https://m.blog.naver.com/sooheenam/224104865739

초보 투자자도 이해되는 양적긴축(QT), 양적완화(QE), 시장이 반응하는 구조
https://m.blog.naver.com/ne2ne2/224105687910

FOMC 굿(비둘기 파월), 오라클 망, 마이크론 굿, 엔비디아 불안, 국장은 선물옵션 동시만기
https://m.blog.naver.com/realme0603/224105658801

 2026년 부동산 시장, 모든 전략 바꿔야 산다
https://m.blog.naver.com/r-cast/224105658089

연준 금리 인하 발표, 투자자에게 가장 중요한 포인트 5가지!
https://m.blog.naver.com/ne2ne2/224105635842

 신월5동, 정비예정구역 해제 12년만 1,241세대 명품단지로 공급 본격화
https://m.blog.naver.com/sooheenam/224104832449

“여보, 통장 다시 꺼내” 주담대 막히자 9천억 몰린 곳
https://m.blog.naver.com/r-cast/224105621520

『거래도 경매도 '최악'… 우울한 지산센터』 - 용도변경 가능성 낮아져, 규제완화 가능할지 의문
https://m.blog.naver.com/hong8706/224105606358

美 인하·日 인상 준비…오락가락 금융시장
https://n.news.naver.com/mnews/article/215/0001234236

12월 아파트 입주전망지수 4.3p 하락... “10·15 대책 영향”
https://n.news.naver.com/mnews/article/023/0003946304

미국 연준 금리 인하에도 환율 소폭 상승…1,473.0원
https://n.news.naver.com/mnews/article/055/0001315468

서울 아파트값 상승률 다시 확대…강남·한강벨트 상승폭 커져
https://n.news.naver.com/mnews/article/374/0000480035

미국 금리인하 효과 기대했지만…상승 출발한 코스피 ‘4110선’ 마감
https://n.news.naver.com/mnews/article/009/0005604623

미 기준금리 인하에도 환율 올라
https://n.news.naver.com/mnews/article/032/0003414676

오피스텔 내년 입주 물량 16년 만에 최저…공급 절벽 현실화
https://n.news.naver.com/mnews/article/009/0005604624

美 기준금리 인하에 금·은 가격 동반 상승...구리 값도 고공행진
https://n.news.naver.com/mnews/article/023/0003946340

“SK하이닉스가 투자경고 지정 됐다고”…한국거래소 “제도개선 착수”
https://n.news.naver.com/mnews/article/009/0005604864

'주택부족 비상등'⋯정부 공급책은 지지부진
https://n.news.naver.com/mnews/article/031/0000988615

래미안 옆에 래미안 그 옆에 또 래미안…강남 3구 신규 분양 절반 휩쓸었다
https://n.news.naver.com/mnews/article/011/0004566359

충청권 안에서도 '똘똘한 한 채'… 내부 양극화 심화
https://n.news.naver.com/mnews/article/656/0000159147

서울 아파트값, 3주만에 상승폭 확대... 과천·수지 등 경기권 규제지역도 강세
https://n.news.naver.com/mnews/article/014/0005447852

"돈이 안돈다"… 매일 1.6개씩 문닫는 건설사
https://n.news.naver.com/mnews/article/014/0005447850

'대책 없다'는 서울 집값 다시 '꿈틀'…지방도 '대반전' [우동집 브리핑]
https://n.news.naver.com/mnews/article/215/0001234292

불법하도급에 영업정지 최대 1년·과징금 최대 30%로 강화
https://n.news.naver.com/mnews/article/243/0000089472

효성그룹 청담빌딩, 35층 오피스로 재탄생
https://n.news.naver.com/mnews/article/009/0005604777

'똘똘한 한 채' 쏠림에 다주택자 비중 확 줄어
https://n.news.naver.com/mnews/article/009/0005604775

대출 규제·공급 절벽…'전세 포비아'에 잇단 재계약
https://n.news.naver.com/mnews/article/015/0005223367

규제 안 먹히는 서울 아파트값
https://n.news.naver.com/mnews/article/015/0005223363

구룡마을, 200여가구 늘려 3739가구로 짓는다
https://n.news.naver.com/mnews/article/015/0005223360

한강벨트 인기에…소폭 반등한 서울 아파트값 상승률[집슐랭]
https://n.news.naver.com/mnews/article/011/0004566283

대출 비중 62.2%→46.9%로 '뚝'…서울 아파트 '현금시장' 됐다[집슐랭]
https://n.news.naver.com/mnews/article/011/0004566265

10·15대책 후 서울 아파트값 횡보 양상…과천·분당은 강세
https://n.news.naver.com/mnews/article/422/0000811203

둔화 2주 만에 상승폭 확대…15억 이하 중저가 지역 아파트값 오름세
https://n.news.naver.com/mnews/article/025/0003489233

중국, 내년 '더 적극적' 재정정책…15차 5개년 계획 군불 땐다
https://n.news.naver.com/mnews/article/008/0005290880

연준, 3연속 인하 뒤 ‘속도조절’ 시사…극심해진 내부 분열
https://n.news.naver.com/mnews/article/018/0006182171

일본 "부자는 더 내고, 기업은 덜 내는" 2026년 세제 개편안 준비
https://n.news.naver.com/mnews/article/008/0005290877

中, 경제회복 위해 내년도 돈 푼다…'내수회복' 우선과제로 제시
https://n.news.naver.com/mnews/article/001/0015792250

中, '내수 초점' 내년 경제방향 발표…"필요한 재정적자 유지"
https://n.news.naver.com/mnews/article/001/0015792218

스위스중앙銀, 기준금리 2회 연속 0%로 동결
https://n.news.naver.com/mnews/article/018/0006182158

홍콩 증시, 中 경기선행 불안에 반락 마감…H주 0.23%↓
https://n.news.naver.com/mnews/article/003/0013653643

韓 철강에 닥친 겹악재… 美 고율관세 이어 베트남 반덤핑관세까지
https://n.news.naver.com/mnews/article/021/0002756566

中 증시, 경기선행 불안에 조정매물로 하락 마감…창업판 1.41%↓
https://n.news.naver.com/mnews/article/003/0013653606

"美 추가 금리 인하 가능성 닫히진 않아" 안도…극한의 분열상은 험로 예고
https://n.news.naver.com/mnews/article/008/0005290845

파월 “지금이 중립금리” 당분간 동결에 무게…연준위원 3명은 반대
https://n.news.naver.com/mnews/article/009/0005604796

파월 "지금이 중립금리"… 美연준 당분간 동결에 무게
https://n.news.naver.com/mnews/article/009/0005604787

11월 기술주 숨 고르기 속 ‘저가 매수’ 유입…AI·반도체 조정, 바이오는 질주
https://n.news.naver.com/mnews/article/243/0000089471

오라클 매출 실망' 소프트뱅크 급락…닛케이 0.90%↓ [Asia마감]
https://n.news.naver.com/mnews/article/008/0005290833

미연준, 3연속 금리인하…파월은 내년 1차례만 인하 시사
https://n.news.naver.com/mnews/article/009/0005604742

골드만 "위안화 25% 저평가"…IMF 총재도 환율정책 전환 촉구
https://n.news.naver.com/mnews/article/008/0005290784

 위안화, 美 금리인하로 14개월 만에 최고치…"기준치↑·달러↓"
https://n.news.naver.com/mnews/article/003/0013653358

=====================================================

1️⃣ 부동산 시장 동향
■ 서울 아파트 가격 재상승

서울 아파트값 상승폭 확대, 강남·한강벨트 중심 강세.

10·15 대책 이후 보합 흐름이었으나, 15억 이하 중저가 단지들의 가격이 다시 상승.

규제지역(과천·수지·분당 등)도 오름세.

■ 수도권·지방 공급 및 정비사업 확대

강동구·공덕1구역·건대입구·청담동·용두동·범서구역 등 정비·역세권 개발 소식 다수.

신월5동·구룡마을 등 대규모 재개발 본격화.

정비사업 규제 완화 기조 지속 → 공급 기대는 커지나 실제 공급은 지연되는 구간.

■ 전세·주거 관련 이슈

대출 규제 강화 & ‘전세 포비아’ → 재계약 증가.

빌라 전세대출 관련 이슈, 세입자 계약금 관련 분쟁 사례.

오피스텔 공급 절벽, 내년 입주물량 16년 만에 최저.

2️⃣ 글로벌 금리·환율·증시
■ FOMC 핵심

연준 3연속 금리 인하, 그러나 파월은 “내년 1회 인하”로 매파적 신호.

금리 인하에도 미국 달러는 약세 제한, 원·달러 환율은 소폭 상승(1473원대).

내부적으로 위원 간 의견 분열 심화 → 정책 불확실성 확대.

■ 국제 상품·증시 흐름

금·은·구리 등 원자재 가격 상승.

기술주 조정, AI·반도체는 숨 고르기 → 바이오는 강세.

오라클 실적 부진 → 글로벌 IT 변동성 확대.

3️⃣ 국내 경제·산업

내수 부진 + 건설 침체 → 고용 증가폭 둔화.

건설사 폐업 증가 ("매일 1.6개 문 닫는 건설사").

철강업계: 美 고율관세 + 베트남 반덤핑 관세.

소비는 ‘가성비·개인화’ 트렌드 강화(R114 분석).

다주택자 비중 감소, 서울 아파트는 ‘현금 시장화’.

4️⃣ 정책 및 제도 변화

서울 토지거래허가구역 신규 지정 + 기존 63곳 재지정(규제 강화).

불법 하도급 제재 강화: 영업정지 최대 1년·과징금 최대 30%.

세제 관련: 비거주자와 거주자 조합의 비과세 사례 정리.

⭐ 오늘 내용 중, 투자 판단에 꼭 필요한 핵심 3가지 추천
① 서울·수도권 집값 재상승: 규제에도 시장은 ‘상승 전환’

강남·한강벨트 중심, 15억 이하 중저가 단지 강세.

거래량은 줄었지만 ‘호가 상승’, 현금구매 증가.

공급 부족 + 개발 기대감이 다시 가격 밀어올림.
➡ 2026년까지 공급 부족과 규제효과 약화로 상승 압력 지속 가능성 높음.

② FOMC: ‘금리 인하 but 매파적’ → 내년 금융시장 변동성 확대

연준 “당분간 동결” 시그널, 위원 간 의견 완전 분열.

금리 인하속도 불확실해지며 환율·주식 변동성 확대.
➡ 내년 투자전략: 환율 리스크 관리 + 기술주 쏠림 조심 + 금·원자재 관심 필요.

③ 부동산 공급 지연 + 정비사업 규제 완화

서울은 개발 뉴스는 많으나 실제 입주물량 부족은 심화.

정비사업은 늘어나지만 인허가·착공은 아직 속도 느림.
➡ 공급 절벽 지역의 구축·준신축 실수요/투자 매력↑,
정비사업(재개발·재건축) 초기 단계 지역은 중장기적으로 주목 필요.